Before Dominick Reyes became Azamat Murzakanov's opponent, he took his place on a UFC card. In June 2017, Reyes replaced Murzakanov against Joachim Christensen in Oklahoma City. Nine years later, they are scheduled opposite each other on the UFC 333 prelims in Abu Dhabi on October 24. Their careers have a real connection, without the need to manufacture a grudge. ([S1], [S2])
The immediate question is who makes the other man commit first. Reyes has the longer reach and a documented intercepting left. Murzakanov has repeatedly turned a small opening into the end of a fight. That combination could produce sudden violence, but it could also make both men reluctant to supply the opening.
BWH gives Murzakanov a narrow edge. The reason is his capacity to find a finish without first surrendering the patience Reyes would like to exploit. Reyes has the tools to change that assessment, but he must use his range to create offense rather than simply wait behind it.
The counter needs a target
Reyes's win over Nikita Krylov is the strongest recent illustration of his danger against an advancing opponent. UFC's contemporary report describes an intercepting left as Krylov came forward, ending the fight in the opening round. The lesson is clear enough without assigning every future opponent Krylov's mistake: a careless approach can be terminal. ([S3])
The reach difference gives Reyes more room to work with. UFC lists him at 77 inches and Murzakanov at 71.5. Those measurements describe an opportunity, not control of the fight. Reyes still has to land, make his opponent respond and leave before the return arrives. ([S4], [S5])
His latest performance makes that last requirement interesting. UFC's account of the Johnny Walker fight describes a restrained contest, much of it conducted with kicks at distance and little impactful punching. Reyes earned a split decision, but that fight supplies no basis for assuming he will overwhelm Murzakanov with sustained activity. ([S6])
Selective offense can be sensible against a dangerous puncher. It becomes a problem if selection leaves too little offense to win the round. Reyes cannot build his entire case around a counter that Murzakanov may never offer.
Murzakanov can afford to be patient
Murzakanov's victory over Brendson Ribeiro challenges the idea that his only route is to charge forward. UFC's recap describes him spending the early stages judging distance and timing before a left hand created the finish. It is evidence from one fight, not a universal style rule, but it matters here. ([S7])
If he can make Reyes initiate, the shorter fighter does not have to cross every inch under fire. A commitment from Reyes can close part of the distance for him. That is BWH's central tactical inference: patience can serve Murzakanov's power rather than neutralize it.
The risk is obvious. Waiting cannot become an excuse to accept clean kicks and lose rounds from outside. Murzakanov needs purposeful pressure, enough to demand reactions, without supplying the straight-line attack Reyes punished against Krylov. His successful approach has to create a usable punching exchange, not merely move the fight toward the fence.
The later rounds remain dangerous
There is a real question about Murzakanov's sustained effectiveness. UFC's account of his Dustin Jacoby fight describes early damage followed by a substantial third-round slowdown; he won 29–28 on all three cards. That is a reason to examine the later exchanges, not a diagnosis of his conditioning three years afterward. ([S8])
His record also includes third-round stoppages of Tafon Nchukwi and Devin Clark. Surviving the beginning does not make him harmless. Reyes would still need to produce enough effective offense to exploit any decline. ([S5])
The recent losses deserve the same care. Paulo Costa stopped Murzakanov in the third after a fight in which, according to UFC's report, Murzakanov had a better middle round before renewed kicking damage turned the contest. Reyes was stopped by Carlos Ulberg before rebounding against Walker. Those results show vulnerabilities, but neither establishes present medical condition or guarantees this opponent can reproduce the decisive attack. ([S6], [S4])
BWH's conclusion
We lean Murzakanov because the patient version of his offense is harder for Reyes to organize around than the reckless pursuer a counterpuncher would prefer. Reyes's clearest route requires him to establish scoring at distance and then punish the response. His Walker performance leaves more doubt about the first part than the Krylov finish removes about the second.
The strongest objection is that Murzakanov still has to reach a longer opponent capable of ending the fight on entry. If Reyes starts scoring without lingering, Murzakanov's patience can become a deficit rather than an asset. That would undermine our forecast quickly.
The expected difference is a small number of consequential exchanges, not a relentless firefight. Murzakanov is our narrow winner prediction; the method is less secure. What decides it is who creates the opening without paying more for it than he gains.
Reporting note: This is BWH editorial analysis based on official results and attributed written reports, not first-hand film review. Published before official weigh-ins; current medical readiness is not independently established.